Highlights
- The Bureau of Reclamation's final environmental impact statement would cut Lower Basin water withdrawals by up to 3 million acre-feet annually through 2036.
- Arizona holds the lowest water-rights priority among the three Lower Basin states, putting Central Arizona Project deliveries to Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties most at risk.
- Gov. Katie Hobbs and Arizona Senate Republican leaders both oppose the federal plan, urging adoption of a less severe Lower Basin deal struck in May.
- Experts say the actual cuts in the first two years will likely track the Lower Basin states' own proposal, not the federal maximum.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's final environmental impact statement, released this week, would reduce water withdrawals by Arizona, California and Nevada by up to 3 million acre-feet a year through 2036, roughly the combined annual allocation of Nevada and Arizona, under what the agency calls an adaptive decision framework, according to reporting by the Arizona Capitol Times.
For Scottsdale and the broader Maricopa County market, the exposure is direct. Experts cited in the Capitol Times report say cuts are expected to fall on users served by the Central Arizona Project, the 336-mile canal system that delivers Colorado River water to Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties. Arizona holds the lowest priority claim under the prior appropriation system, meaning it absorbs reductions before California or Nevada.
Gov. Katie Hobbs said she hopes the bureau adopts the deal the three Lower Basin states negotiated in May rather than the steeper federal framework. "I'm not going to lie, the cuts will be painful, but certainly not as painful as what was proposed in the federal government's draft," Hobbs said. Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen and President Pro Tem T.J. Shope issued a joint statement warning the plan "could place Arizona at risk of shouldering a disproportionate share of the cuts while requiring no reductions from the Upper Basin."
The allocation cuts would start next year, be revisited every two years, and be adjusted based on conditions throughout the basin. The framework is also needed to replace a previous framework implemented in 2007 that expires at the end of the year.
The river's decline is structural, not cyclical. Doug Kenney, director of the water policy program at the University of Colorado, told the Capitol Times that river flow is now 20% below its level at the start of the century. The states have been trying to negotiate their own framework, but talks have stalled, requiring the federal government to step in.
What cuts are actually expected in the next two years?
Experts say the bureau's plan for the first two years will reflect the Lower Basin agreement the three states struck in May, which calls for 1.25 million acre-feet of binding reductions in both 2027 and 2028 and at least 700,000 acre-feet of additional conservation, far less than the federal maximum. Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University
Sources
Every factual claim in this article traces to one of the sources below. See how we work for the editorial process.
- azcapitoltimes.com retrieved 07/08/2026 16:45
Authored by The Scottsdale Signal. Drafted by AI from primary-source material under our beat-specific editorial guides; reviewed by humans before publish under our five-gate process. Sources retrieved at 07/08/2026 16:45. Every claim traces to a source.
