Highlights
- Republicans hold a 17-13 Senate advantage and a 33-27 House advantage heading into the November general election.
- LD4, covering north Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and north Phoenix, has no primary contests — Werner vs. Lieberman is set for November.
- In the LD4 House race, incumbents Matt Gress and Pamela Carter lead a three-way Republican primary over Paradise Valley Unified board member Sandra Christensen.
- Five competitive districts statewide, including two covering Signal readers' home turf, will determine which party controls the Legislature in 2027.
Control of the Arizona Legislature runs through north Scottsdale this November. Republicans hold a 17-13 advantage in the Senate and a 33-27 advantage in the House, and two of the five races most likely to decide those margins sit inside Legislative District 4, which covers north Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and north Phoenix, according to Arizona Capitol Times reporting published Thursday.
The LD4 Senate contest is already set. No primary challengers emerged on either side, meaning incumbent Sen. Carine Werner, R-Scottsdale, will face former Democratic Rep. Aaron Lieberman in November. Werner defeated then-incumbent Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh by just under 4 percentage points in their 2024 race. Lieberman, described in the Capitol Times piece as a business owner who helps bring electric vehicle charging stations to apartment complexes, was elected twice to the House before resigning in 2021 to run for governor. Republicans lead LD4 voter registration with 66,152 active voters to Democrats' 43,945, with another 55,812 voters carrying no party designation.
The LD4 House race is more unsettled heading into the fall. Incumbents Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, and Pamela Carter, R-Scottsdale, led a three-way Republican primary through Thursday's unofficial results, with Gress at 45% and Carter at 34% over Sandra Christensen, a Paradise Valley Unified School District governing board member, at 21%. The two Democratic challengers, Karen Gresham, a Madison Elementary School District governing board member, and business owner Tammy Caputi, ran unopposed in their primary. Gresham lost to Carter by roughly 2 percentage points in the 2024 general election.
Beyond LD4, the Capitol Times identified three other districts as decisive: the LD2 Senate race, where incumbent Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, led her Republican primary with 71% of votes through Thursday and will face Democrat Amelia Gallitano in November; the LD13 House race in Chandler, where no incumbent is running and Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke led the Republican primary; and the LD17 House race in Tucson, where Rep. Kevin Volk, D-Tucson, is defending a 2024 upset win.
The last time Democrats held a majority in the Arizona Senate was 1991. Democrats last held the House in 1965, according to the Capitol Times. Arizona's official primary canvass is scheduled for Aug. 6.
Sources
Every factual claim in this article traces to one of the sources below. See how we work for the editorial process.
- azcapitoltimes.com retrieved 23/07/2026 19:17
Authored by The Scottsdale Signal. Drafted by AI from primary-source material under our beat-specific editorial guides; reviewed by humans before publish under our five-gate process. Sources retrieved at 23/07/2026 19:17. Every claim traces to a source.
